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Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Florence
06L.Florence 90L.INVEST Here's another one. bob rulz 20:57, 2 September 2006 (UTC) :Well this is certainly something. 3 invests in 26 hours, and some disturbed weather east of FL (though that looks to be like an upper-low, but we'll see). Dare I say, the season is finally waking up? -Runningonbrains 00:45, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::I don't think this blob will do much though. Dry air will get to it. CrazyC83 03:30, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :::Dvorak estimates now T1.5/1.5! -- WmE 13:06, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::::NHC is now calling for the possibility of a tropical depression later today out of this one. Jake52 My talk 14:25, 3 September 2006 (UTC) THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. -- WmE 15:15, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :We could have TWO new depressions before the Labor Day weekend is through! Perhaps Florence and Gordon soon! 98L just adds fuel to the fire to 90L... CrazyC83 15:29, 3 September 2006 (UTC) 06L.NONAME Just appeared!!! -- WmE 18:32, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :(pokes the sizzling atlantic) Wow this is amazing. Hello32020 18:38, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::You know September is here when these blobs develop this fast. I think it will quickly become Florence. CrazyC83 18:48, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :::Here comes the hurricane!... --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 19:04, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Unless shear picks up or she decides to take the same path as Ernesto... CrazyC83 19:08, 3 September 2006 (UTC) This is by far the most impressive looking TD or weak TS of the season.--Code1390 19:19, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :The one that became Debby looked quite good. It looks like T.D. #6 should become Florence pretty easily. After that, who knows. The key is the central Atlantic trough. Thegreatdr 20:08, 3 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six Confirmation by the NHC! -- WmE 20:36, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :Second Cape Verde system - will this be another Cape Verde dud like Debby? The track is more conducive to steady (although not exactly rapid) intensification... CrazyC83 20:51, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::Water temperatures seem perfect for TD 6, but if shear or dry air comes, it may be just a bare tropical storm like Debby and Chris. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 21:49, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :::Should I also upload an image for TD 6 or wait until it becomes a TS? --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 22:04, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Hold off on uploading a sat image and just use the 5-day forecast track, like we've been doing. --'Coredesat' talk. ^_^ 23:06, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::Looks a lot like Hurricane Andrew did at this time...although obviously I'd prefer another Debby! 128.84.139.122 22:35, 3 September 2006 (UTC) :::A lot of storms look like Andrew did at this time. Only one became Andrew. Really, people, stop masturbating over what you think a storm might do in ten days - the forecast quality is only good for three days. That's it. Three days. In three days, neither will it be Andrew, nor will it be anywhere near Florida. The seven day forecast said Ioke was going to hit Tokyo as a category 3 storm; the three day says it will miss completely. Which was more accurate? Hell, the three-day said Rita was going to hit Houston. There's no point to making comments like this, unless you want it to become an Andrew. (the disclaimer you added doesn't change that). But regardless of if you want it to be Andrew, the fact is: You don't know. No one will know if it's remotely like Andrew for over a week. --Golbez 22:54, 3 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Word. It may not even keep to the cone: just look at Ernesto. Having said that, it is very likely to drift ever westward. We'll have a better idea later in the week. Personally I think 99L still takes priority... Pobbie Rarr 23:08, 3 September 2006 (UTC) GFDL makes this a 137 kt Cat 5 in 126 hrs. Sorry, I'm to lazy to post a link.--Code1390 00:34, 4 September 2006 (UTC) :Isn't GDFL the model known to exaggerate things? Anyway, if this things does reach a Cat 5, plenty of people on the predictions page will be happy with thier predictions. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Fableheroesguild (talk • ) }| }|}}. ::Actually, a lot of models tend to over-exaggerate things. bob rulz 01:02, 4 September 2006 (UTC) :::Hey, I made a pre-season prediction that Florence would be this year's Cape-Verde monster storm. However, given that I also predicted a hyperactive August (of which Florence was to be part) you can safely discount anything I say. ;) :::Seriously, predicting a Cat. 5 this early is a fool's game. Pobbie Rarr 01:16, 4 September 2006 (UTC) :::GFDL certaintly seems to be acting odd lately. The fact that it overexaggerated Ioke's strength (seriously, 200+ mph and 860 mbar???) made it lose a bit of credibility on my end, but I still place my trust in it. Jake52 My talk 01:21, 4 September 2006 (UTC) ::::With Ioke, the GFDL wasn't being run with its full coupled ocean model, so it was certainly overexaggerating. I don't know if that is affecting the runs on Six, but even the GFS is/was calling for Six to be a powerful storm (and then recurve out to sea). —BazookaJoe 02:42, 4 September 2006 (UTC) :::::The Ioke situation made sense though, the GFDL wasn't designed for the Central Pacific, it was handling indicators incorrectly, etc. Maybe it was even bouncing things off the dateline like UK MET. --Golbez 02:45, 4 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::Ah, the problems with ocean coupling apparently was a factor after all, according to Pasch — "WE BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH INTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING." —BazookaJoe 02:49, 4 September 2006 (UTC) :::::::Yikes! Number six seems to be on the warpath, User:Cyclone1 better keep this storm to a very close watch to this depression. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 06:11, 4 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::::It's still a long way out. CrazyC83 16:47, 4 September 2006 (UTC) It seems that TD6 is comfortable in its current state. Doesn't seem to want to strengthen or weaken. How long will such last? Shear is expected to drop to virtually nothing, and dry air isn't that great. CrazyC83 04:27, 5 September 2006 (UTC) :Now they're saying it shouldn't strengthen for another two days... if it makes it that far. Don't be surprised if it turns out to be yet another dud in 2006. Pobbie Rarr 11:42, 5 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Florence It's up to 40mph at the 11am advisory - we have Florence! CrazyC83 14:43, 5 September 2006 (UTC) :She's going to be a fish-spinner. :( -24.92.41.95 14:53, 5 September 2006 (UTC) ::Why the frown? Fish-spinners are good. Though there is no indication that this one will be. I have no faith in there 120 hr projections. Ernesto and John came no where close to the 120 hr projections. --Holderca1 15:04, 5 September 2006 (UTC) :::I seriously doubt it will be a fish at this point...it only has one escape route (between Bermuda and the US East Coast). CrazyC83 15:13, 5 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Florence is a big storm. TS force winds currently extend outward 115 miles from the center. -- WmE 16:10, 5 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Wow, this thing will be formidable if it becomes a major hurricane (or even a minimal hurricane). bob rulz 20:56, 5 September 2006 (UTC) 115 miles? Whoa... that's pretty big for such a disorganized system. I agree completley, the 120 hr prediction is not much to plan by. Look at it, it's easily 1000 miles from end to end! (the prediction cone, not Florence... that would be cool though.) [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 22:02, 5 September 2006 (UTC) Oh, BTW, thanks for the concern up there Alastor Moody. I imagine if it does hit, I'm not goin anywhere. I'm pretty stubborn. Lol. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 22:07, 5 September 2006 (UTC) :It doesn't look poorly-organized. Even if it's a fishy, it can send heavy surf to coastlines, if it passed very close to a coastline. --IrfanFaiz 23:36, 5 September 2006 (UTC) ::It seems to have made a deformed center. Florence could be a catastrophe if it ever strengthens into a hurricane and hit land. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 00:07, 6 September 2006 (UTC) :::You could say that about any potential hurricane. Anyway, unlike Ernesto land interaction is unlikely to stop Florence from strengthening. She might end up a fish-spinner, but with a cone like that you have to take it seriously. Pobbie Rarr 01:22, 6 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Also unlike Ernesto, she is not in a position where she could go into rapid intensification easily if she changed course unexpectedly...but she has time on her side. CrazyC83 15:06, 6 September 2006 (UTC) Looks like she's choking off 91L. I hadn't looked at full-basin satellite imagery before now....this thing is huge! -Runningonbrains 15:01, 6 September 2006 (UTC) :Tropical storm winds extend out nearly 300 miles! CrazyC83 15:06, 6 September 2006 (UTC) ::Yeah, the tropical storm-force wind field is about the same size as Katrina's now. Wow. Pobbie Rarr 15:58, 6 September 2006 (UTC) :::The CMC model takes a major hurricane (Cat 4?) into Newfoundland after a direct hit on Bermuda...it seems to be the most aggressive... CrazyC83 16:25, 6 September 2006 (UTC) :::Not quite, the wind field is not very symmetrical. Most of the winds are in the NE quadrant. --Holderca1 17:44, 6 September 2006 (UTC) The sandbox article is at User:CrazyC83/Florence06, even though it will likely be several days at least (and at hurricane strength) before it is necessary. CrazyC83 15:08, 6 September 2006 (UTC) :I say, once hurricane watches go up for Bermuda, the article can go live. A hurricane watch should trigger a flood of news information. --Holderca1 18:30, 7 September 2006 (UTC) Here we go: OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING OVER THE NOW-OBSCURED CLOUD SWIRL...AND THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. and TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER. This is one hell of a storm already. bob rulz 21:07, 6 September 2006 (UTC) :Fortunately, it does not look like it will strike land, though a shift slightly westward in the track would bring it dangerously close to the Mid-Atlantic and especially New England. —Cuiviénen 22:11, 6 September 2006 (UTC) ::Don't forget about Bermuda. —BazookaJoe 00:34, 7 September 2006 (UTC) ::Yeah, Bermuda counts as land. If it follows the current projected path, Bermuda would be on the right side of the storm as well. --Holderca1 18:21, 7 September 2006 (UTC) Wow...FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES... --Holderca1 20:41, 7 September 2006 (UTC) :Even bigger now....diameter of 900 NMI. Everyone (Bermuda excepted) is going to dodge a bullet here. If this impacted land, well, it's no Tip but I can't ever remember an Atlantic storm storm this big. I seem to remember Hurricane Edouard (1996) being pretty huge...anyone else? ::If I remember correctly, the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 had a diameter of 600 miles for hurricane force winds, and for some reason I remember Hugo (1988) and Carla (1961) as also being very large systems (but none of the details, unfortunately). 147.70.242.40 22:55, 7 September 2006 (UTC) :::Tropical Storm force winds now extending 405 miles from the center. Weatherman90 23:02, 7 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Could be the most gigantic storm of the season... --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 00:34, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Looks like the '44 cane takes the cake with a 300 mile 64kt radius....too bad there are no 34-kt radii from back then, it may well have rivaled Tip. I know they mentioned that Florence should grow larger, are they forecasting further growth? (I havent been keeping up on NHC discussions) -Runningonbrains 01:16, 8 September 2006 (UTC) On a note related to the article, what is with the discrepency in storm size? The Public Advisory states that the maximum 34-kt radius is 405 miles, while the discussion says that the wind field is more than 900 nautical miles in diameter (450 nmi radius). Now, 450 nautical miles is more than 500 miles, and conversely 405 miles is about 350 nautical miles. Anyone have any idea what caused this NHC goof (if it is a goof) or where the discrepency is coming from? I'm going to change the article for now given the doubt as to the true measurement. :The wind field does not necessarily mean the radius of tropical storm force winds. The wind field probably includes all winds related to the storm, including sub-TS strength (eg. 30 mph winds from the storm). Hurricanehink (talk) 01:40, 8 September 2006 (UTC) ::I thought they used 34-kt winds to define the size of a storm...-Runningonbrains 02:11, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :::Nevermind what I said, then. I have no idea about the discrepency. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:49, 8 September 2006 (UTC) Avila is baffled as to why Florence hasn't strengthened, just like he was baffled as to why Epsilon didn't weaken. The 2006 season seems to be all about under-forecasting as opposed to over-forecasting in 2005. Anyhow, the size alone is a major concern - the possibility of a hurricane as strong as Fabian but much larger hitting Bermuda is very real. Pobbie Rarr 03:00, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :I don't get why all the baffling? Until this evening, conditions were NOT great for strengthening. Shear was significant then, but has since dropped. It is definitely better organized than it was this afternoon, and I think it is now actually stronger than it way (it could have been overestimated then). CrazyC83 03:10, 8 September 2006 (UTC) ::I'm actually gonna go with baffling right now. There's no reason it shouldnt have strengthened by now. -Runningonbrains 11:53, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :::The 5AM discussion mentions that strengthening is taking longer to occur due to the large circulation. List of notable tropical cyclones#Size extremes says Tip was the largest at 1350 miles, though I'd be interested in knowing the largest Atlantic TC. I'm a bit surprised that they don't know why a particular computer model is predicting something. Don't they have access to the projection's programming or the people who do? "FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENS FLORENCE AFTER RECURVATURE OCCURS." TransUtopian 12:57, 8 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Being a model of extreme complexity, any weather forecast model can sometimes produce unexpected or unrealistic results if some random combination of variables occurs. It will probably right itself by the next run. -Runningonbrains 14:23, 8 September 2006 (UTC) NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE PREVAILED. – Chacor 14:55, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :Just as I thought it would. At this time yesterday, it looked pretty much dead. The dry air is finally gone too. Should be a really interesting Storm History section in the end explaining everything! CrazyC83 15:17, 8 September 2006 (UTC) ::I found the discussion note amusing... though I'm not sure exactly what it means. What does it mean? (PS: Thanks, Runningonbrains, for the previous explanation. Nice username too.) TransUtopian 16:25, 8 September 2006 (UTC) Regardless of what happens in the short term, this is going to be one monster of an extratropical storm. --Holderca1 18:00, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :Oh, yes. Europe may need to actually moniter this. But that's way down the road. In the short term, Florence, even if she misses Bermuda by even 100 miles or so, is large enough to cause extensive damage on the island. I don't even want to think about the damage that would come from a well estalished hurricane of that size striking Bermuda nearly head on. Remind anyone of anything? [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 19:21, 8 September 2006 (UTC) Hurricane watch up for Bermuda. --Holderca1 20:39, 8 September 2006 (UTC) :50kt/997mb now on NRL. This should be official at the next advisory. It looks like Florence is finally on a strengthening trend. Is this an eye? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg? Pobbie Rarr 02:03, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::Whoa, 55kt/994mb in fact. Here we go (P.S. you were lightning-quick with the update, Crazy :)). Pobbie Rarr 03:12, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :: (edit conflict) Actually 65 mph, gosh she's sure re-generating, may be a hurricane tommorow. Bermuda better be on the look out or else its *holds out his hand and gives the death signal*. Could be a wipe-out too. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 03:17, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :::Senseless comments go elsewhere. – Chacor 03:53, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::::I would use WP:Civil, except I do agree with Chacor. While I understand that Alastor was saying that Bermuda should prepare in his own special, clever way, his way was not really a proper one for this discussion.Also, I don't want to wave rules and start fights and have it turn out my rule-throwing was unfounded and then I look like an idiot.guitarhero777777 05:09, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :I wouldn't want to be on Bermuda over the next few days. Iorek85 03:16, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::That thing is huge, as big as Frances. But if it becomes a hurricane, it'll be larger. --IrfanFaiz 10:44, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :::Probably bigger (than Frances), actually. It's nearly the size of Floyd!http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/sat_ir_a.gif Wouldn't surprise me to see the biggest storm of the season out of this. Actually, it would surprise me if this weren't the biggest of the season. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 12:37, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Yep, TS winds extend outward from the eye 345 miles. That's nearly a 700 mile across monster. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 12:43, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :::::T4.0/4.0 =65 kts. Newest models have it as a 70 mph TS with 992 mbar (NRL). It's approaching hurricane strength. -- WmE 13:18, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::The advisory supports that too. This thing is a beast and if it's not a hurricane already, it soon will be. NHC says all satellite intensity estimates point to hurricane strength, but that the storm appears too ragged for them to upgrade it and they want to make sure those estimates aren't rain-contaminated. A Hurricane Hunter will have the answer later this afternoon. If the current forecast holds true, this could be Bermuda's worst since Fabian in '03. Closest approach is forecast to be at 8 am Monday while at peak intensity (now forecast to be 105 mph; Cat 2). That's not going to be a good day in paradise. Monday, by the way, is the fifth anniversary of the September 11th attacks and if this thing hits at 8 am as forecast, I'm going to be severely creeped out. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 18:09, 9 September 2006 (UTC) Recon doesn't support a hurricane. In fact it didn't strengthen at all. They have only found windspeeds that would support a 45 kt TS. -- WmE 18:12, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :What are you talking about? The recon hasn't even sent its results back yet. The 2 pm advisory still says 70 mph. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/091748.shtml -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 18:17, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::If you don't belive me look at that: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm and you'll find the latest vortex. sying 58kt flight level winds which corresponds to about 45 kt surface winds. -- WmE 18:20, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :::Florence is the storm that refuses to strengthen. In the NW quadrant, the storgest one, they just found 59 kt flight level winds. What an odd storm!! -- WmE 18:32, 9 September 2006 (UTC) ::::I think the NRL is forecasting Florence to peak at the upper-end of Category 1 strength. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 21:09, 9 September 2006 (UTC) :I think we have had more than enough confirmation that intensity forecasts are terrible! Knabb/Blake seem puzzled at the 11PM advisory and even Dr. Masters said, "Florence has begun the long-expected intensification phase that was forecast for the past week, much to the relief of hurricane forecasts who worried that their basic understanding of hurricane intensification processes was flawed. (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)" and he said this prior to its weakening AGAIN. The exact opposite of what Epsilon and Wilma did. Let me leave you with a blurb from Knabb/Blake's 11PM discussion "SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT CENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2238 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50 TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT. FLORENCE HAS FOOLED US BEFORE AND IT IS BEST TO WAIT FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/100244.shtml)." The great kawa 03:14, 10 September 2006 (UTC) :First the long lived and completely random nature of Kyle, then the revival of Ivan, then the incredible intensification of Wilma, then Epsilon and Zeta's survival skills, followed by Chris and Debby's intensification mess-up, followed by Kristy's drawn out dissipation, and now this. The NHC seems to be getting a challenge in predicting these odd cyclones recently. EDIT: Something that looks like a spiral arm is forming on the south end of Florence's convection. Jake52 My talk 05:44, 10 September 2006 (UTC) Hurricane Florence Now a 'cane as of the 2AM advisory, 75mph. -- RattleMan 05:58, 10 September 2006 (UTC) :I almost fainted seeing the vortex since I was reporting on Storm2k at the time...I think that may be conservative. CrazyC83 06:02, 10 September 2006 (UTC) ::Looks formidable...but not like a hurricane. Pretty dense CDO, but the eye's pretty well hidden...if it has an eye -Runningonbrains 07:34, 10 September 2006 (UTC) Weather observations from Bermuda. Time is in ADT. – Chacor 12:09, 10 September 2006 (UTC) :::An eye in latest satellite images. --IrfanFaiz 12:45, 10 September 2006 (UTC) ::::And it's still in the process of forming if you check out the latest satellite loops. The relatively high potential for rapid intensification has also been mentioned by the NHC. Bad news for Bermuda. Pobbie Rarr 14:58, 10 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Strongly agreed. CrazyC83 15:23, 10 September 2006 (UTC) Beware the first storm of September. I live by it. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 17:20, 10 September 2006 (UTC) :Point taken XD SargeAbernathy 17:29, 10 September 2006 (UTC) Up to 90mph, and Recon has 96kt just reported, suggesting they issued that update too soon. Their flight level suggests it is really a 100mph storm. CrazyC83 18:04, 10 September 2006 (UTC) ::Expect Category 2 status. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + + userboxes) 19:01, 10 September 2006 (UTC) :There is a discrepancy between the latest Dvorak T-numbers (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html) and rapid intensification seems to have abated somewhat based on recent Hurricane Hunter reports. Bermuda should prepare for a long and weary battering from Florence, but I don't think it will be near a Fabian. Because the storm is so MASSIVE though, I do suspect long periods of tropical storm and hurricane force winds, though it is nothing like the almighty Wilma of last year when she practically stalled over the Yucatan.The great kawa 22:13, 10 September 2006 (UTC) ::Nor is it a Category 4 hurricane. In fact, it appears to me to be weakening. It looks more ragged, decayed, pieces are falling off it, and the eye is not nearly as well defined. Could be just a sucky day for Bermuda, I can't see this storm doing a whole lot in the way of damage. Maybe some trees and power lines down. Slight shingle damage, maybe. It's gonna be a long and dreary night in paradise but it doesn't look like much more than that. Let's hope that's the case. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 05:33, 11 September 2006 (UTC) Recon is now at Florence, data should be coming in in a few minutes, but I doubt the NHC will have any data by the time the 2 AM advisory comes out (the plane just began descending). --'Coredesat' talk. o_O 05:42, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :Hurricane Florence seems content on being weak. I guess I was not so crazy when I though that the satellite presentation was rather ragged. T-numbers down, pressure rising slightly, eye obliterated, Florence is done. 80 mph winds now and because Florence cannot get her act together (because she is so big), I believe Bermuda will be dealing with a minimal hurricane at worst. All eyes on TD7.The great kawa 10:14, 11 September 2006 (UTC) ::Well, it wasn't so content on being weak after all. Made some strengthening as it passed by the island. From discussion #33: EVEN THOUGH FLORENCE PASSED ABOUT 48 N MI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...THEY WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ISLAND EXPERIENCED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT A HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...AND THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ::—BazookaJoe 21:07, 11 September 2006 (UTC) 12/1145 UTC 37.5N 61.8W EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean – Chacor 13:29, 12 September 2006 (UTC) Extra/Post-tropical Florence CHC is still monitoring this system. TS Warnings and Watches are still in effect... – Chacor 20:57, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :Yes, which is why we should stay on top of it. CrazyC83 21:24, 12 September 2006 (UTC) Florence is still active even though the NHC have released their final Advisory on it so we should still ist it as an active storm User Jason Rees :Its now an extratropical Cat. 1 hurricane as the CHC sees it. But wow, can you imagine a very disorganized, but big storm bring TS force winds around 300-500 miles from its center?!? — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 01:04, 13 September 2006 (UTC) ::It could also be heading my way in a few days time. Extratropical storms are no pushovers. Pobbie Rarr 02:47, 13 September 2006 (UTC) I am a bit confused. How can you have a TS Warning without a tropical storm? Do you mean a gale warning? --Holderca1 13:45, 13 September 2006 (UTC) :I too am confused. It is definately worded as "Tropical Storm Warning" by the CHC, but it doesnt make sense to have a TS warning with no TS. Does the CHC normally do this? I know the NWS has a destinction: TS warning for non-tropical system is a gale or storm warning, while a hurricane warning is a "hurricane-force wind warning" or something to that effect. -Runningonbrains 13:48, 13 September 2006 (UTC) --Holderca1 14:16, 13 September 2006 (UTC) : A "hurricane-force wind warning" warning is a tornado warning, bizarrely. You could see that in action during Katrina. —AySz88 ^-^ 17:32, 13 September 2006 (UTC) ::Actually, tornado warning=tornado warning. Forecasters during Katrina saw isolated supercells in the outer rainbands. (Katrina actually had a substantial tornado outbreak associated with it) CrazyC is right, I forgot that hurricane force wind warnings are only for marine areas.-Runningonbrains 21:18, 14 September 2006 (UTC) ::: Nope, check this link, which says: ::: So a tornado warning can be issued for eyewall winds (though, not really equivalent to "hurricane force" since the threshold is 115 mph here). —AySz88 ^-^ 21:23, 14 September 2006 (UTC) ::::How bout that. You learn something new every day I guess. I followed the link, and i definately think the "extreme wind warning" is a good idea. -Runningonbrains 22:03, 14 September 2006 (UTC) ::They also mention that there are still some tropical characteristics left (I don't see them). As for that hurricane force wind warning, that is issued for any system, tropical or not, in marine areas (not on land) for winds of hurricane force. CrazyC83 21:39, 13 September 2006 (UTC) :Also notable, was that this storm had a pressure of less than 970 mb while lashing Canada with hurricane force winds with gusts up to 100 mph!!! The great kawa 03:16, 14 September 2006 (UTC) ::The CHC still carries it, so does the NRL. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 03:38, 14 September 2006 (UTC) :::I just can't believe it. Ex-Florence is now an almost dissipated storm with only low-level clouds but is still retaining hurricane-force winds!!! Also its still very big. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 02:25, 15 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Looks like it might be heading for the British Isles as well. Gulp. --Mark J 16:58, 16 September 2006 (UTC) :::::"...lashing Canada with hurricane force winds with gusts up to 100 mph!!!" Ahh, isn't September wonderful? -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 17:00, 17 September 2006 (UTC) Florence is finally gone from the NRL. -- RattleMan 05:42, 18 September 2006 (UTC)